Based in Howden
£25-30k + Bonus & Benefits
To forecast as accurately as possible, expected demand for stock on all Primary Distribution Centres, for a chosen group of products. To be achieved by reviewing Sales, Allocations & Despatch History and adjusting it where necessary, creating the most appropriate Statistical Forecast Models, seeking out & applying relevant MI and selecting the best forecast model, based on forecast accuracy metrics, sales & growth / decline trends.
To build strong relationships with marketing, RTM support & supply planning, to gather relevant MI (Sales & Allocations) and ensure understanding & alignment to the business demand plan
The role has the ability to impact on service to the Depots, operational stock levels & cash flow. The accuracy of the Demand Plan for the chosen group of products has a direct impact on capacity & resource planning for manufacturing, logistics & suppliers.
Key to the role is the ability to confidently articulate the Demand Plan, provide appropriate context information to the supply planning & purchasing teams & demonstrate its accuracy. The requirement is to pro-actively identify and address forecast accuracy issues, as well as responding to business queries in a prompt & professional manner.
1. Annual demand of £50m - £ 100m
2. Finished Goods Stock value of £ 5m – £ 15m
3. SKU count of 750 – 1,500
4. Time frame for operational planning = 2 years
5. Interpreting Sales & Allocations History, selecting appropriate Forecast models for each SKU, communicating the business Demand Plan & providing appropriate context information for the supply planning & purchasing teams.
1. To create accurate forecasts of expected demand on a group of products, across all primary warehouses, from all UK Depots, by reviewing Depot Sales & Primary Allocations history, as well as creating & selecting appropriate forecast models at SKU Code level.
2. To seek out appropriate MI from marketing, route to market support and supply planning teams and apply these where appropriate to improve the accuracy of the demand forecast.
3. To review Forecast Accuracy performance, with a view to delivering year on year performance improvement. To validate that MI Forecast Adjustments applied to Depot Sales or Primary Allocations are in fact improving forecast accuracy.
4. To review the SKU Groupings for both Statistical & Alternate forecast models, as well as the groups used for Allocations Profiling, to ensure that they are appropriate & support the highest level of forecast accuracy.
5. To monitor, with a view to pro-actively responding to and /or anticipating the impact of : NPI launches, Cutovers, Depot ROP & SBO activity, changing Sales / Allocations Trends & Patterns, Depot Lead-Bank, Allocations Order-Book, Depot Promotional Activity (local & central) & Marketing Price Actions.
6. To provide appropriate context information to the Supply Planning teams on forecast selection, the application of MI & forecast accuracy performance, to build trust & confidence in the demand plan.
7. To ensure forecast queries are responded to & tactical forecast changes are completed within the SLA timeframes agreed with key customers.
HARDEST PART OF THE JOB
Producing detailed SKU Code Level forecasts, at supplier-lead-time, of Depot Sales, for all New Products & Cutover products at launch. Monitoring Depot ROP activity and Sales patterns post launch, to determine if the forecasted growth rates & sales levels are appropriate, how long they will continue for and whether there is likely to be any detrimental / cannibalisation impact on other products / Ranges.
Analysing Sales volumes & patterns, to determine which phase a product is at in its lifecycle & updating forecast models accordingly. Assessing whether to use Sales, Allocations or Despatch history and which forecast model to select to provide the most accurate forward view. Gathering Market Intelligence from Depot Managers & Marketing, to understand the impact of price action, promotions, etc and determining the appropriate action to take in Supply Division, to mitigate the risks associated with changing demand patterns.
KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE
Minimum “A” Level qualified (or equivalent) with 2 years experience of Demand or Supply Chain planning experience, ideally gained in a Blue Chip, IT Driven, Manufacturing or Retail environment. Good knowledge of IT systems (SAP APO) for Forecasting, Inventory Management, Planning & Production Scheduling. MS Excel – Advanced Level.
To apply for this role, please forward a copy of your CV with salary requirments to firstname.lastname@example.org